Hurricane Matthew Storm Surge: How to Evaluate Its Potential Magnitude and Impacts

The dangers of seawater bursting into neighborhoods can be quite unexpected for those who have never experienced a hurricane of the immense power ofMatthew.

Large wind-driven waves riding on top of a storm tide—the combined height of the astronomical tide and thestorm surge—can wreak havoc on life and property. Especially if the waves and maximum storm surge arrive during the normal high tide period.

Evaluating the potential magnitude and impacts of hurricane storm surges

1. Look up thelocal time for high tide.
2. Find out the projected timing forlocal storm surgefor your area. (Select your local National Weather Service location at the bottom of the page.)
3. Add the heights of #1 and #2 and compare with local topography for height above mean sea level.
4. Know thehurricane categorywhen it is predicted to affect your region. In general the higher wind speeds create larger storm surges.Damage increases by the cube of the wind speed.
5. Consult the size of the hurricane. Thelarger the wind fieldthe greater the storm surge. In 2012 Sandy was the largest Atlantic Hurricane to date withhigh winds extended over 900 milesthat contributed to a major storm surge in New Jersey and New York.
6. Check your location in relation to the hurricane track. The strongest winds typically are on the on theright side of the storm in relation to the forward motionof the hurricane in the northern hemisphere.
7. Know your local geography and history of storm surges as the shape of each shoreline strongly dictates how large the storm surge will be.

Local storm surge projections can help plan for hurricanes

First and foremost, follow local authorities who have thelatest local surge impacts informationfrom NOAA. Consult the latest advisories for the particular storm such as those issued for HurricaneMatthew.

Based on the NOAA forecast issued at 12:00 p.m. EDT on October 6, it looks like Hurricane Matthew might reach the region of Mayport, Florida tide station during the rising tide on the evening of October 7 (see figure below).

The Union of Concerned Scientists report,The US Military on the Front Lines of Rising Seas, paints a picture of inundation under different categories of hurricanes for nearbyNaval Station Mayport Florida.

Hurricane Matthew has left in its wake devastationand tragic loss of life in Haiti. The uppermost priority is the flow of resources and information that can help those currently preparing for the storm and recovery from Hurricane Matthew.